Early warning indicators for transitions in high-dimensional dynamical systems

By Henk Dijkstra

Utrecht University, Department of Physics

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Abstract

Climate research deals with changes in the statistics rather than in the exact state of the Earth system. Ergodic theory is aimed to relating the dynamics of a system to its statistical properties and thus particularly suitable for developing a theory of climate variability.  In this presentation, concepts of ergodic theory will be used to study climate variability and response to forcing. In particular, it is shown that crucial information on the stability of the climate system can be extracted by approximations of the associated  transfer operators and their ergodicity spectrum.  The methodology is applied to transitions in high-dimensional models of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and midlatitude atmospheric blocking events.  

MCRN Colloquium webinar on Friday, January 15th, 2016, 9:30am EST

Submitter

Monica Romeo

RENCI, UNC Chapel Hill

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