
Vegetation patterns in mathematical models, and vegetation patterns in Horn of Africa
21 Apr 2016  Presentations
Visually striking largescale spatial patterns of vegetation have been observed in semiarid regions in the Americas, Africa and Australia. These have led to suggestions by theoretical ecologists that certain characteristics of the patterns may serve as earlywarning signs of desertification....

Local and nonlocal mechanisms of Arctic warming
25 Feb 2016  Presentations
Polar amplification (PA) is a prominent feature of currently observed and predicted future climate change suggested by both observations and models. We will discuss several PA mechanisms and feedbacks in the ocean and the atmosphere suggested by different researchers and connect it to the real...

New averaging results motivated by climate models: fat tails, oscillations, and tipping
10 Dec 2015  Presentations
We review recent results where new averaging approaches are developed and applied in the context of systems with multiple time scales and fat tails and in nonautonomous multiple scale systems with oscillatory forcing. These types of systems appear in a variety of higher dimensional...

Jafarov Seminar
30 Nov 2015  Presentations
Dr. Elchin Jafarov is a research associate at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder. He has a PhD in Geophysics and a masters degree in Mathematics both from the University of Alaska Fairbanks....

Tipping points and power cuts
18 Jun 2015  Presentations

Who, or what, will tip the big climate models?
18 Jun 2015  Presentations

ICMS Tipping Points: Fundamentals and Applications
13 Jun 2015  Workshops
Objectives: This workshop (September, 2013) brings together mathematicians and statisticians, whose research expertise is relevant to investigating threshold behaviour in complex environmental systems, with the climate scientists and ecologists who exploit mathematical modelling in their research...

Orbital Forcing and Ice Age
02 Jun 2015  Educational Materials
Annotated Bibliography by Daniel Koll

Midwest Mathematics and Climate Conference  Day 2 Afternoon Session
12 May 2015  Presentations
Charles Jackson, University of Texas, AustinDualstate Behavior of the Community Climate System ModelIce age climate between 80,000 and 11,000 years ago experienced abrupt (< 10 year) globalscale climate transitions every few thousand years. Evidence and theory suggests such behavior may be...

Midwest Mathematics and Climate Conference
12 May 2015  Workshops
The conference is sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Institute of Mathematics and Its Applications, the Office of Research,College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, and the Department of Mathematics, Department of Geography/Atmospheric Science Program, and The...

Midwest Mathematics and Climate Conference
12 May 2015  Workshops
The conference is sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Institute of Mathematics and Its Applications, the Office of Research,College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, and the Department of Mathematics, Department of Geography/Atmospheric Science Program, and The...

Midwest Mathematics and Climate Conference  Day 1 Afternoon Session
12 May 2015  Presentations
Graham Feingold, National Oceanic & Atmospheric AdministratonDynamical System Analogues to Cloud SystemsShallow convection exhibits fascinating cellular structures at scales of a few to several hundred kilometers. Configurations of relatively cloud free open cell states, or much cloudier...

Realistic modeling and analysis of synchronization dynamics in powergrid networks
08 May 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
An imperative condition for the functioning of a powergrid network is that its power generators remain synchronized. Disturbances can prompt desynchronization, which is a process that has been involved in large power outages. In this talk I will first give a comparative review of three leading...

Synchronization in power grid networks
07 May 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
This survey discusses Master Stability Function (MSF) analysis for determining stability of synchronization of coupled oscillators on network. In addition, we briefly discuss the derivation of the Swing equation that determine the dynamics of a node in power grid network, and...

Complex Energy Systems
07 May 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
This is the opening guest lecture for the Electric Grid Focus Group. Dr. Michael Chertkov of Los Alamos National Lab describes the statistical and mathematical problems arising in complex energy systems, including the electric grid and gas networks. Systems with high penetration of...

A Survey of Grid Control and Optimization
07 May 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
This is an introductory survey of how control problems arise on different time scales in electric grid transmission problems. The set up and general form of such problems are considered, along with operational considerations.

Particle filters for geophysical applications
30 Apr 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
Avoiding degeneracy is a crucial challenge for particle filters. Results have shown that the number of particles scales exponentially with respect to the number of independent observations. In this talk I will review attempts to counteract this phenomenon by exploiting proposal densities. I will...

Toward a hybrid particleensemble Kalman filter for assimilating data from Lagrangian instruments into high dimensional models
30 Apr 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
Presented by Elaine Spiller on 32615Abstract:We discuss a recently proposed hybrid particleensemble Kalman filter for assimilating Lagrangian data, and apply it to a highdimensional quasigeostrophic ocean model. Effectively the hybrid filter applies a particle filter to the highly nonlinear,...

Emulators in climate science. Uncertainty, sensitivity, calibration and more
30 Apr 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
An emulator or a surrogate is a statistical approximation of a complex numerical model. Emulators are fast to run and include a measure of their own uncertainty. This makes them suitable for a number of applications in climate science. Emulators were originally devised for uncertainty...

Statistical Data Assimilation For Parameter Estimation In Costal Ocean Hydrodynamics Modeling
30 Apr 2015  Presentations  Contributor(s): Mary Lou Zeeman
Coastal ocean models are used for a variety of applications, including modeling tides and hurricane storm surge. These models numerically solve the shallow water equations, which are derived by depth integrating the NavierStokes equations. The inherent uncertainties in coastal ocean models are a...