Sarah Iams will lead a discussion of the paper by Berglund and Gentz (Metastability in Simple Climate Models), which describes a method for characterizing the behavior of simple stochastic climate models.
Events List

Stochastic Reductions Working Group

Danny Wells  A broadly applicable method for the identification of bifurcations in complex, multiparameter dynamical systems
Danny will return for a discussion of his previous presentation.

Stochastic Reductions Working Group
We will go through Roberts' paper on normal form transforms in fastslow stochastic systems (http://arxiv.org/abs/math/0701623). Karna will lead this discussion.

Danny Wells  A broadly applicable method for the identification of bifurcations in complex, multiparameter dynamical systems
Traditional numerical bifurcation methods seek to identify and classify solutions in systems with small numbers of parameters. These methods have become canonical tools in determining how solutions of dynamical systems depend upon parameters. Of particular interest are bifurcation points, which are points in parameter space at which different solution branches intersect. Difficulties arise when such methods are applied to models with many parameters, however, since in these cases it is...

Maarten Eppinga  A new method to infer vegetation boundary movement from ‘snapshot’ data
Maarten will rejoin us for a discussion of his work.

Maarten Eppinga  A new method to infer vegetation boundary movement from ‘snapshot’ data
Global change may induce shifts in plant community distributions at multiple spatial scales. At the ecosystem scale, such shifts may result in movement of ecotones or vegetation boundaries. Most indicators for ecosystem change require time series data, but here a new method is proposed enabling inference of vegetation boundary movement from one ‘snapshot’ (e.g. an aerial photograph or satellite image) in time. The method compares the average spatial position of frontrunners of both...

Ira Schwartz  InterventionBased Stochastic Disease Eradication
Ira Schwartz (NRL) will give a talk on modeling rare event switching and predicting dynamics near bifurcation points. Ira has recommended the paper titled "InterventionBased Stochastic Disease Eradication" as a primer to his talk.

Takashi Nishikawa  Controlling systems that drift through a tipping point
Takashi Nishikawa will continue to discuss his work on controlling systems through tipping points.

Takashi Nishikawa  Controlling systems that drift through a tipping point
Slow parameter drift is common in many systems (e.g., the amount of greenhouse gases in the terrestrial atmosphere is increasing). In such situations, the attractor on which the system trajectory lies can be destroyed, and the trajectory will then go to another attractor of the system. We consider the case where there is more than one of these possible final attractors, and we ask whether we can control the outcome (i.e., the attractor that ultimately captures the trajectory) using only small...

Stochastic Reductions Working Group
Rachel Kuske will continue her presentation of papers to the SRWG. She will conclude discussion of "Additive noise effects in active nonlinear spatially extended systems" and briefly discuss the related paper "New stochastic mode reduction strategy for dissipative systems."

Stochastic Reductions Working Group
Rachel Kuske will present two papers: Additive noise effects in active nonlinear spatially extended systems New Stochastic Mode Reduction Strategy for Dissipative Systems

Paul Tupper  Modeling and Simulating Systems with StateDependent Diffusion
Paul Tupper will be present for a discussion of the content presented in his talk.

Paul Tupper  Modeling and Simulating Systems with StateDependent Diffusion
We propose a framework for modeling stochastic systems with statedependent diffusion coefficients. Rather than specifying the dynamics through a statedependent drift and diffusion coefficients, assuming detailed balance, we specify an equilibrium probability density and a statedependent diffusion coefficient. We argue that our framework is more natural from the modeling point of view and has a distinct advantage in situations where either the equilibrium probability density or the...

Meeting
Recap of Tipping points: Fundamentals and Applications ICMS Workshop on Webex. For further information, contact Karna Gowda.

Stochastic Reduction Working Group
Tony Roberts will lead a general discussion with us about the field of stochastic reduction techniques. To help address how his methods compare to established methods of averaging for stochastic systems, Tony suggests looking at this file, in which he applies his methods to some examples given in this paper by Monahan and Culina.

Stochastic Reductions Working Group
This will be a brainstorming meeting to prepare for a discussion with Tony Roberts from the University of Adelaide (whose paper we discussed a few weeks ago). Tony has been working in the field of reduction techniques for stochastic systems for quite some time, and additionally has collaborated with I. Kevrekedis on equation free modeling.

Stochastic Reduction Working Group
Mary led a discussion of the Chekroun and Wang paper.

Stochastic Reductions Working Group
Discussed literature by Chekroun & Wang (1 and 2) and other stochastic reduction techniques. Decided to compile and annotate work we're aware of in a Dropbox folder. You can read the meeting minutes (courtesy of Kaitlin) here.

Stochastic Reductions Working Group
Shouhong Wang discusses his work on a theory for dynamic transitions. Description: Ma and Wang have developed a new mathematical theory for dynamic transitions. The key philosophy of the dynamic transition theory is to search for the full set of transition states, giving a complete characterization on stability and transition. One important part of the theory is to establish a general principle that dynamic transitions of all dissipative systems can be classified into three categories:...

Karna Gowda and Christian Kuehn  EarlyWarning Signs for PatternFormation in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations
Christian and Karna continue the discussion of "EarlyWarning Signs for PatternFormation in Stochastic Partial Differential Equations" (http://arxiv.org/abs/1403.5920), a submission for the CNSNS special issue on tipping points.
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