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Peter Challenor - Emulators in climate science. Uncertainty, sensitivity, calibration and more. – 
Friday, March 20, 2015 @ 10:30 am EDT — Friday, March 20, 2015 @ 12:00 pm EDT
An emulator or a surrogate is a statistical approximation of a complex numerical model. Emulators are fast to run and include a measure of their own uncertainty. This makes them suitable for a number of applications in climate science. Emulators were originally devised for uncertainty quantification but their application goes far beyond simply estimated the errors on model outputs. I will explain what an emulator is, how it can be calculated and some applications in model prediction, sensitivity analysis and quantifying uncertainty. Current research topics will also be discussed.
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